Colorado team again says fewer hurricanes

The latest prediction from the Colorado State University hurricane team called for a season less active than the average.

Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray issued their prediction last week. They expect four hurricanes and 10 named storms. Just one major hurricane of category 3 to 5 is expected, the pair said.

The 1981 to 2010 average is for 6.5 hurricanes and 12 named storms.

The forecast is slightly higher than the one that was issued in April, the pair noted.

“We anticipate a below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic, they said in the report. “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

“Our new early June statistical forecast methodology shows strong evidence over 29 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained,” the report said. “We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had a statistical model developed over a long hindcast period which showed significant skill over climatology.”

This is the 31st year in which the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.  Other agencies also predict a less than average hurricane season.

Although hurricanes almost never make landfall on Costa Rican soil, the extended winds can cause major damage.

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