The Colorado State University hurricane predictions for 2014 were low. But they were not low enough.
The year saw an unusually low number of Atlantic hurricanes, and none shared the effects with Costa Rica.
The prediction team of Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the university’s Department of Atmospheric Science are legend. Gray has been making predictions and honing his techniques for 55 years.
This year the team predicted 10 named storms and four hurricanes. There were eight named storms and six hurricanes. They also predicted just one major hurricane, but there were two. That’s the average for the years 1981 to 2010.
Hurricane Arthur was the only storm to make a U.S. landfall. It touched and caused some damage in eastern North Carolina in July.
The Atlantic hurricane season is considered to be from June 1 to Nov. 30. although a hurricane can form at any time.
“As was the case last year, dry mid-level air and sinking motion prevailed across the Atlantic basin,” the team reported. “The tropical Atlantic was also a bit cooler than normal, and vertical wind shear was quite strong across the Caribbean.” All of these conditions likely combined to create an unfavorable environment for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, they added.